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Document 2720
DOCN M94A2720
TI Projections of the AIDS epidemic in the Dominican Republic.
DT 9412
AU Gomez E; Sweat M; Arbaje M; Butler de Lister M; SESPAS/PROCETS,
Dominican Ministry of Health, Santo Domingo.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):24 (abstract no. 071C). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94369855
AB OBJECTIVE: To project a scenario of the number of HIV infections, AIDS
deaths, and related impacts of AIDS in the Dominican Republic (DR)
through the year 2000. METHODS: The future impact of the AIDS epidemic
was derived from three models (Epimodel, Demproj, AIM). HIV prevalence
estimates from national sentinel surveillance studies were fitted to a
hypothetical curve to generate future prevalence estimates. These were
combined with demographic projections to develop population specific HIV
and AIDS estimates. ASSUMPTIONS: HIV prevalence in 1991 was 15% among
homosexual men, 3.5% among CSWs, 0.7% among prenatal women, and 0.9%
among sexually active adult heterosexuals, ages 18-46. Up to 15% of the
adult Dominican population is assumed to be at enhanced risk for
acquiring HIV through sexual contact. The scenario presented here
assumes HIV prevalence growing to 5% of the adult population by year
2000. RESULTS: If adult HIV prevalence reaches 5% by 2000: (1) over
300,000 Dominicans will be HIV infected; (2) there will be 17,600 AIDS
deaths per year; (3) over 55,000 orphans will survive mothers who have
died of AIDS; (4) child mortality will rise from 55 to 80 deaths per
1000; (5) and 14,000 additional cases of TB will result from associated
HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive multi-sectorial prevention
programs backed by supportive policies are needed in the DR to slow HIV
transmission and mitigate the potential health, social, and economic
impact of AIDS.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/
TRANSMISSION Adolescence Child Child, Preschool Disease
Outbreaks/PREVENTION & CONTROL Dominican Republic/EPIDEMIOLOGY Female
Forecasting Human *HIV Seroprevalence Infant Male Middle Age Sex
Behavior MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).